MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1107

ACUS11 KWNS 171803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171803
MIZ000-WIZ000-171930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI...CENTRAL LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 171803Z - 171930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS BOTH CENTRAL/E CENTRAL WI...AND CENTRAL LOWER
MI INTO THE THUMB. AT THIS TIME...THE HAIL/WIND RISK APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MI AND CENTRAL WI. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ARE
SUPPORTING MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY..THIS
CORRIDOR IS BENEATH THE ZONE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...AND IN ADVANCE
OF AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX MOVING ESEWD OVER MN/WI. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEAKLY FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS CLOUD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS GIVEN THE MODEST BUOYANCY
AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS.
HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED...AND
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HAIL/WIND RISK IS MARGINAL. THUS...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY...THOUGH THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 06/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON 43678309 43298267 42808283 42678344 42998555 43538800
44339054 44639079 44959064 45148997 44988922 44178621
43678309

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