MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1153

ACUS11 KWNS 211835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211834
MNZ000-SDZ000-211930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD INTO SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 211834Z - 211930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH ECNTRL SD
INTO SWRN MN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES EWD THROUGH ECNTRL AND NERN
SD. LONG LIVED STORM CURRENTLY OVER BUFFALO COUNTY REMAINS SEVERE
WITH BOWING STRUCTURES...WHILE OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
WARM ADVECTION WING EAST OF THIS FEATURE. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP ENEWD FOR A WHILE AS THEY RIDE ALONG NRN FRINGE OF WARMER
700 MB TEMPERATURES BEFORE TURNING MORE EWD AND ESEWD. THE
DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH 2500-3500
J/KG MLCAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS REGION RESIDES ON NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ
WITH HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL MESO-CYCLONES AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. ORGANIZED STORMS WITH BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOWING
STRUCTURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING ACCOMPANYING
THE EWD MOVING MCV.

..DIAL/KERR.. 06/21/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 45319730 45039517 44089384 43559448 43679567 43819666
43969809 44919822 45319730

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