MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1173

ACUS11 KWNS 221946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221945
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-222115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB THROUGH WRN SD AND SWRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221945Z - 222115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
WRN NEB THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS AFTER 21Z. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...DIABATIC WARMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN NEB INTO
WRN SD IS DESTABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN A MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ELY UPSLOPE REGIME. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES 1500-2000
J/KG MLCAPE ALREADY IN PLACE. NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY WITHIN A ZONE OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SUPPORTED
BY AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SOME INCREASE IN SWLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES FARTHER
EAST WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT FAVORING ORGANIZED STORMS.
FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY...BUT THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SOME
OF THE STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS. IF STORMS CAN REMAIN
DISCRETE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE
GREATER...OTHERWISE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

..DIAL/KERR.. 06/22/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 41290381 44490395 46340370 46390240 44900195 41420199
41290381

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