MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1174

ACUS11 KWNS 222034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222034
NEZ000-222130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1174
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEB...

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222034Z - 222130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEB
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF TSTMS DO DEVELOP...CONDITIONS WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A WW WOULD BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS
BECOME THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NEB AND AT 20Z EXTENDED
FROM NR IMPERIAL TO COLUMBUS. THE FRONT HAS LIFTED NWD ALLOWING A
VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING HAS COMBINED WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE TO RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND
LOCALLY 3000 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE DISCUSSION AREA
IS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-TROPOSPHERIC SWLY FLOW
AVERAGING 35 KTS...AND AS A RESULT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 40
KTS EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH CORRESPONDS WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING
DIMINISHING MLCINH IN THIS AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT
BECOMING MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EVENING. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP THE
ENVIRONMENT FAVORS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH
A WATCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM...THE LIKELIHOOD INCREASES
TOWARDS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

..BUNTING/KERR.. 06/22/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 40349841 40149910 40339972 40720014 41270051 41780057
42150047 42350043 42530001 42589950 42539905 42259857
41659821 40969804 40349841

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