MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1220

ACUS11 KWNS 251905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251904
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-252100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1220
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OH...CENTRAL/WRN PA...NRN PANHANDLE OF WV.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251904Z - 252100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE GENERALLY EWD INTO DESTABILIZING AIR MASS.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED THREE PRIMARY BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THIS REGION THAT MAY FOCUS BOUNDS OF SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH
ACTIVITY ALSO IS DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR REMOVED FROM THESE...
1. SWRN LE AND NWRN OH BETWEEN TOL-FDY...EXTENDING WSWWD OVER NRN
INDIANA. THIS QUASISTATIONARY FEATURE IS LEFT OVER FROM EXTINCT
EARLY MORNING MCS...BUT APPEARS TO HAVE SPAWNED A FEW TSTMS OVER
NWRN OH AND WRN LE.
2. EXTENDING WNWWD FROM ONGOING SERN PA CONVECTION TO JUST S DUJ TO
NERN CORNER OF OH WHERE IT INTERSECTS...
3. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY GENERALLY LOCATED JUST INLAND FROM LE
SHORELINE.

S OF THESE FEATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME ESSENTIALLY
UNINHIBITED FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND SFC DEW
POINTS UPPER 60S TO 70S F CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE GENERALLY IN
2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. AS SUCH...AND WITH ADDITIONAL
INSOLATION...INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS LIKELY. BUOYANCY SHOULD
REMAIN HIGHEST IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS...NEAR PRIMARY SFC MOIST
AXIS DRAWN FROM CVG AREA NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN OH. WLYS NEAR SFC
LIMIT CONVERGENCE...AS WELL AS MOST MEASURES OF VERTICAL SHEAR.
NONETHELESS...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF LOW-MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED COLD-POOL
RELATED WIND DAMAGE AND SMALL BOWS...SHOULD INITIAL MULTICELL MODES
AGGREGATE UPSCALE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW.

..EDWARDS/KERR.. 06/25/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

LAT...LON 41258409 41448274 41558200 41978055 42088012 41737945
40627768 39558016 39688438 41258409

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.