Friday, June 28, 2013

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1290

ACUS11 KWNS 281836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281836
GAZ000-282000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281836Z - 282000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A NWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SERN GA IS PRECEDED
BY STRONG INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION
NWD INTO PARTS OF SERN GA WHILE STRONG STORMS SUCCEED THE BOUNDARY.
WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVELY
OVERTURNED AIR...STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE LIKELY. DOWNWARD MASS
TRANSPORT WILL BE ACCELERATED BY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION LOADING
OWING TO PW VALUES OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES PER GPS DATA. ISOLATED DMGG
WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WEAK
DEEP SHEAR WILL GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 06/28/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON 31818287 32438241 32538156 32268123 31808104 31108151
31148272 31818287

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