MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 152035
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-152334-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0107
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
434 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 152034Z - 152334Z

SUMMARY...A BURGEONING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO HAS BEGUN TO PRODUCE SOME VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES
WITHIN A VERY SHORT TIME FRAME, LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THIS AREA.

DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAUSED BY EARLIER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS MO COMBINED WITH A STREAM OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES -- PWS -- OF NEARLY TWO INCHES BEING FORCED NEAR AND
OVER THE BOUNDARY BY 850 HPA WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS HAS LED TO AN
EXPANDING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO.
CORFIDI VECTORS AND THE LOW-LEVEL WIND INDICATE A CONTINUING
PROGRESSION TO THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME, THOUGH THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COULD TIE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER FOR
A COUPLE HOURS. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITHIN THESE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH NEARLY 0.60 INCH FALLING WITHIN
11 MINUTES. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS BEING MAXIMIZED IN THIS REGION
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE/UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE RED
RIVER FROM TX INTO OK. THE 15Z HRRR HAS CAPTURED THIS ACTIVITY
THE BEST, AND INDICATES THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALIGN ALONG A MORE
NORTH-SOUTH AXIS THROUGH 22Z/5 PM CDT. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4
INCHES WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS IS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD EXCEED FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES -- FFGS -- ACROSS THE REGION. EXTENDED THE
DEADLINE OUT THREE HOURS IN CASE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST LONGER THAN
THE 15Z HRRR ADVERTISES.

ROTH

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON 36519343 36569440 37379540 38629571 39849555 40469472
40429318 39369274 37439294 36519343

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