DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011935
SWODY1
SPC AC 011933

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT MON JUL 01 2013

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS KY...

VERY MINOR MODIFICATIONS ARE NEEDED FOR 20Z UPDATE CYCLE. LATEST
SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTS EARLIER THINKING REGARDING THE
UPWARD EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK VORT MAX OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY REGION. TSTMS ARE SLOWLY ORGANIZING ALONG AN ARCING BAND
FROM KY/TN BORDER...SEWD INTO ERN TN AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT NWD INTO KY WHERE MUCAPE IS AOA 2000 J/KG. LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED-SCT TSTMS PERSIST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM
FL TO NC WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE...STRONG HEATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS CONTRIBUTING TO DEEPENING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM CO/NM INTO AZ. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS.

..DARROW.. 07/01/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT MON JUL 01 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE D1
PERIOD...FEATURING AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS AND OH
RIVERS AND AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A NUMBER
OF PERTURBATIONS WILL PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW WITH A BAND OF
MODESTLY STRONG SLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAINTAINED ALONG AND E OF A
SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.

...OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOCAL MINIMUM IN CLOUDS
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KY INTO MIDDLE/ERN TN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING TO OCCUR. THIS AREA COINCIDES WITH A POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. -12 TO -13 C AT 500 MB/
WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE PEAK
OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WHERE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 1000-1500
J/KG. A VORTICITY MAXIMUM CURRENTLY OVER WRN TN/NRN MS WILL PIVOT
NEWD AROUND THE UPPER LOW TODAY FOSTERING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS REGION WILL RESIDE ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW /AND SHEAR/ WITHIN ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF ERN
U.S. TROUGH...RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A
POTENTIALLY MORE CONCENTRATED ZONE OF SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE TSTMS WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE
IMPULSES...ONE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE OTHER OVER THE NERN G.O.M.
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE NWD...ENHANCING DEEP ASCENT ACROSS A VERY MOIST
AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS BY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIANS WITHIN A UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND MODESTLY SHEARED KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...A
MIXTURE OF MARGINAL SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...SOME HAIL...AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SRN AZ THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

ONGOING N-S BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS OVER ERN CO APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PROGRESSING SWD. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING TERRAIN-INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS WILL GIVE RISE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR. GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP
WELL-MIXED PBL WITH SIZABLE T-TD SPREADS...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.