DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061952
SWODY1
SPC AC 061949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SAT JUL 06 2013

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...SERN MO...SRN IL...
SEVERAL STRONG STORMS HAVE FORMED BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...AND GIVEN
CONTINUED HEATING AND STRONG INSTABILITY...HAIL AND A FEW WET
MICROBURSTS MAY OCCUR. HAVE EXPANDED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WWD
INTO SERN MO WHERE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING PLACE.

...ERN NV/UT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.00 INCH AND DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT WLY FLOW MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

..JEWELL.. 07/06/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT SAT JUL 06 2013/

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT...WHILE A SECOND VORT MAX IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHWEST WY. THESE
FEATURES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AIDING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING AND RELATIVELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000
J/KG. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MOST
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL MERGE INTO AN MCS AND TRACK
INTO WESTERN MN DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF HAIL
AND WIND.

...MID MS VALLEY...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER MO...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND SUBSTANTIAL AMBIENT VORTICITY
MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS AND POSE A THREAT OF HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND PERHAPS FUNNEL CLOUDS.

...EASTERN STATES...
A LONG-FETCH PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS ZONE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST CORES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR MIGHT ALSO POSE
A RISK OF HAIL FROM OH INTO NY/PA.

...UT/ID INTO WY/MT...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A POCKET OF LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST ID AND NORTHWEST UT. THIS AREA WILL
SEE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO
FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THE 12Z NAM/HRRR IS ALSO MORE BULLISH ON
CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF MT/WY WHERE SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR MIGHT RESULT IN STRONG UPDRAFTS.

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