DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071925
SWODY1
SPC AC 071923

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT SUN JUL 07 2013

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL PA INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND...

...PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF A
PROGRESSIVE MCS NOW OVER CNTRL PA. CONTINUED HEATING AS WELL AS
AMPLE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL HELP MAINTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
COMPLEX WITH MAIN THREAT OF A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GPS SENSORS
INDICATE PWAT INCREASING TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES JUST NE OF THE
EXISTING LINE OF STORMS.

OTHER CELLS NOW OVER SERN NY/MA ARE LIKELY SEVERE WITH HAIL AND/OR
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. THESE AREAS MAY SEE A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WIND IF THE PA COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER.

..JEWELL.. 07/07/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT SUN JUL 07 2013/

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
MORNING RADAR LOOPS SHOW AN ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. THE AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
70F AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2000-2500
J/KG. DESPITE RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...A 35-45 KNOT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX IS ACCOMPANYING THE CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN NJ THIS
EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WY.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN MT/ERN
WY/WRN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A COMBINATION OF BACKED LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO ERODE OVER SD...WHICH MAY DELAY INITIATION UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST
ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS WILL FORM TODAY...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO PARTS OF NEB THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

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