MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1330

ACUS11 KWNS 062024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062023
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-062130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1330
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CDT SAT JUL 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND...NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 393...

VALID 062023Z - 062130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 393
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY THUS
FAR...TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH COMMENCEMENT OF A SEVERE HAIL/WIND HAZARD THEREAFTER.

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1005 MB CYCLONE OVER SERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN ND. A
SECONDARY CYCLONE PERSISTS JUST EAST OF PIR WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
N INTO CNTRL ND. THE TROUGH INTERSECTS AN INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE
W/E-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT CROSSES THE RED RIVER BETWEEN
GFK/FAR. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO ELY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE AIDING IN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR CB
DEVELOPMENT OVER MERCER COUNTY ND. CONVECTION FARTHER E ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS STRUGGLED...PRODUCING JUST A FEW SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES THUS FAR. STILL...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
OF THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/ SHOULD EVENTUALLY YIELD AT A LEAST A COUPLE OF
STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS BY EARLY EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 07/06/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 46800169 48380122 48669864 48249582 47339523 46359624
45899820 45770131 46800169

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