MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1336

ACUS11 KWNS 072047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072047
MTZ000-072145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1336
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT SUN JUL 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 072047Z - 072145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S-CNTRL MT
SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. A THREAT FOR DMGG
WINDS AND HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS INITIATION OF TSTMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN S AND E OF BZN WITHIN THE PAST TWO
HRS...PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY
THUS FAR...CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM IS PROBABLY
YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS...COUPLED WITH 50 KT
OF MIDLEVEL FLOW...COULD FAVOR TSTM INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH EWD PROGRESSION...AND A SUBSEQUENT THREAT
FOR DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE SPATIAL EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF THE POTENTIAL THREAT
EXIST...PARTICULARLY REGARDING THE PRESENCE OF SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT GIVEN WEAK MIDLEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LIKELY OCCURRING. THUS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...

LAT...LON 45090666 45090895 45141057 45411101 45751091 46141039
46320897 46460786 46470672 46000625 45360617 45090666

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