MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1347

ACUS11 KWNS 081952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081951
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-082045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT MON JUL 08 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CNTRL SD...WRN/CNTRL NEB...ERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081951Z - 082045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HRS FROM ERN WY INTO S-CNTRL SD AND CNTRL NEB. PRIMARY THREATS OF
DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A WW THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
TO LARGELY CENTER AROUND TWO PRIMARY AREAS. /1/ A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN NEB...WITH INCREASING SFC-BASED AND MIDLEVEL
CU AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE NOTED RECENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP...AND /2/...A LEE SFC TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN
WY/NERN CO. A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS S-CNTRL SD HAS SHOWN
A STEADY WEAKENING TREND...BUT COULD ALSO SERVE AS A SOURCE FOR
RE-INTENSIFICATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS N-CNTRL NEB HAS BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME...WITH GENERALLY UNIFORM AND WEAK E AND SELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
MESOSCALE FEATURES SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS FROM ERN
WY EWD INTO S-CNTRL SD AND CNTRL NEB. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH TEMPERATURES
HEATING INTO THE 90S F...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG.
LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD ACCOMPANY TSTMS
INITIALLY WITH MORE DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR MODES...BUT EVOLUTION
INTO SMALL LINE SEGMENTS OR A MCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD EVENTUALLY YIELD A PRIMARY THREAT OF DMGG WINDS.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/08/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 44109913 43309831 42259787 41489844 41239932 41200083
41180204 41080359 41350425 42530506 43790525 44290509
44600395 44139918 44109913

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