MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1348

ACUS11 KWNS 082022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082021
IAZ000-NEZ000-082115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT MON JUL 08 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL AND CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 082021Z - 082115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER W-CNTRL AND CNTRL IA...AND MAY POSE A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. DUE TO THE EXPECTED
LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

DISCUSSION...MCV CLEARLY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MO RIVER...AND IS PROGRESSING EWD INTO SW
AND CNTRL IA. INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS APPROACHING
A WEAKLY CONVERGENT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED W-E ACROSS IA
/POSITIONED FROM NEAR SUX TO 10 S ALO AS OF 20Z/. ONE LONE TSTM WAS
NOTED OVER MONONA COUNTY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WAS SHOWING SIGNS
OF INCREASING INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF IA...PRIMARILY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. STRONG HEATING WITHIN A MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG. THIS...ALONG
WITH MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 30 KTS...COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS EXPECTED TO
BE SPARSE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...GIVEN BACKGROUND MIDLEVEL
RIDGING/HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/08/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 41929337 41939484 41939590 41999640 42319662 42589635
42719571 42779459 42789385 42859311 42709254 42139246
41929337

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