ACUS11 KWNS 122001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122000
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-122100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NERN SD...NWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 122000Z - 122100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY TSTMS AS THEY INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER NERN ND/NWRN MN.
DISCUSSION...EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING WITHIN
BROADER MOISTURE/CLOUD PLUME ACROSS ERN ND. OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR
TSTMS HAVE STRENGTHENED WEST OF GFK...LIKELY STILL PARTIALLY
ELEVATED IN NATURE. EVEN SO IT APPEARS HAIL IS APPROACHING SEVERE
LEVELS WITH CORE OVER NELSON COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN/MATURE AS IT SPREADS TOWARD NWRN MN. WITH TIME STRONG
HEATING SOUTH OF THE CLOUD CANOPY SHOULD ENCOURAGE BOUNDARY LAYER
BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. UNTIL MID LEVEL CAPPING IS ERODED
TSTMS WILL BE DELAYED DEVELOPING INTO NERN SD.
..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 07/12/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 47359880 48849672 48619396 45369628 45659860 47359880
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