MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1382

ACUS11 KWNS 122032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122032
MTZ000-122230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 122032Z - 122230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL MT
THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. OVERALL SVR THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED AND
A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
SWRN/CNTRL MT UNDER THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE PAC NW. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL WITH
MOST REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S.
HOWEVER...MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS...WITH SOME INCREASE
EXPECTED AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EWD. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES SBCAPE RANGING FROM 250 TO 500 J PER KG.

WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK...AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER
LEVEL WINDS /40 TO 60 KT AT 500 MB/ EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 TO 60 KT EXIST ACROSS
WRN MT. THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD...GRADUALLY MOVING INTO
SWRN/CNTRL MT. A RESULTANT STRENGTHENING OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION IS POSSIBLE. THE MEAGER MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND DURATION AND A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED BUT ISOLATED SVR WINDS/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 07/12/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 46590722 46090761 45371014 44801250 45881317 46681325
47351197 47940953 47730791 46590722

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