MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1403

ACUS11 KWNS 160028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160027
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-160130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...WRN ND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 415...

VALID 160027Z - 160130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 415 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS
OF WW. SRN PORTIONS OF WW MAY BE CLEARED BY LOCAL WFOS PRIOR TO WW
EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL OVER NERN MT WEAKENED AS UPSTREAM
STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED ALONG THE DRYLINE ANALYZED 20 E OLF TO
NEAR MLS AT 00Z. POTENTIAL DOES REMAIN FOR THIS CONVECTION TO MERGE
AND/OR INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS
OVER WRN ND. DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER IS COOLER AND PRESENCE OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD SLOW THE NOCTURNAL
INCREASE IN MLCIN.

FARTHER S/SW...CONVECTION ALONG THE BIGHORN MTNS HAS DIMINISHED AND
STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP E/NEWD INTO WW 415. WITH THE LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
CU...DRYING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS IN MOST OF WRN SD AND LARGE
CONSISTENCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN DEPICTING NEGATIVE LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION THIS EVENING...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.

..GRAMS.. 07/16/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 48970312 48900087 47380123 46180192 45430466 45870544
47000558 48910495 48970312

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