ACUS11 KWNS 162300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162259
MNZ000-NDZ000-170000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1407
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/WRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 162259Z - 170000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A
LOCALIZED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT. GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR
THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...COLLIDING SFC BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA FROM RED LAKE
COUNTY MN WWD TO STEELE CO ND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN TSTM
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL...THE ENVIRONMENT IN THIS
AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG/
AND 30 TO 35 KTS OF WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. AN ISOLATED SVR REPORT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...BUT ANY SVR
THREAT SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN THIS AREA.
..BUNTING/MEAD.. 07/16/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 47869866 47979784 48189654 48199536 48179526 47969505
47709510 47489568 47359627 47309683 47179758 47079805
47099837 47319870 47619879 47869866
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