ACUS11 KWNS 172009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172008
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-172145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1413
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...MAINE...NRN NH...NRN VT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 172008Z - 172145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINE...NRN NH
AND NRN VT OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WATCH ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED BY 21Z ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF
AGITATED CUMULUS OVER NRN MAINE WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE CELLS IN SRN QUEBEC ARE
BEING SUPPORTED BY A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM LAKE ONTARIO NEWD TO NEAR THE MAINE-CANADA BORDER WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO
2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE WHICH ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH CELLS THAT OBTAIN ROTATION.
..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 07/17/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...
LAT...LON 45947040 45107190 44717233 44177222 43637155 43977018
45176846 46256790 47066788 47286821 47336874 47326914
47116949 45947040
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