MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1414

ACUS11 KWNS 172022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172022
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-172145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1414
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ID...WRN MT...NW WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 172022Z - 172145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ONGOING/EXPECTED SOON ACROSS AND
IN THE IMMEDIATELY LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST SCATTERED WITH SOME SVR STORMS LIKELY. AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SFC LOW IN THE ERN ID
PANHANDLE WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SW MT AND INTO NW WY.
ADDITIONALLY...A THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM THE SFC LOW THROUGH
CNTRL ID. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN WA. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NEWD...THE ASSOCIATED FEATURES WILL MOVE NELY AS WELL.

TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS
ONGOING OR WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOON ACROSS AND IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF
THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE IS AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
AROUND 40 TO 50 KT...WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS ARE ELY. SOME
UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE WITH AN ASSOCIATED TRANSITION TO A
PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 07/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...OTX...

LAT...LON 44461400 46531573 48171629 48871598 48971502 48591313
47871140 44860914 43720940 44461400

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