MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1415

ACUS11 KWNS 172046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172046
GAZ000-SCZ000-ALZ000-172145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1415
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN SC...NRN AND CNTRL GA...NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 172046Z - 172145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NRN AND
CNTRL GA EXTENDING WWD INTO NRN AL AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND WW
ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH THE GULF COAST STATES AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. THIS
COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S F IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF AL AND GA. IN ADDITION TO THE
INSTABILITY...0-3 KM LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM SHOULD HELP ENHANCE
DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION MAKING A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 07/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 34928362 34948614 34818687 34398751 33958767 33408716
33038594 32848551 32628503 32438433 32508335 33038222
33898208 34378233 34768277 34928362

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