MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1425

ACUS11 KWNS 182009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182008
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-182115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1425
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NY...VT...NH...SWRN ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 182008Z - 182115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH A CONTINUED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT. A WW IS PSBL PRIOR TO 21Z.

DISCUSSION...SCTD STG/SVR TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS AN AREA FROM ST
LAWRENCE COUNTY NY SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL VT...SERN NH AND SRN MAINE.
THIS AREA IS ALONG A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT AND CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP SHEAR. EXPECT TSTMS TO
CONTINUE TO POSE A SVR WIND THREAT GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. OVERALL HAIL THREAT WILL BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT A FEW REPORTS
ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL ROTATION. TSTMS
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY ESEWD THROUGH EARLY EVENING
...OCNLY MERGING INTO CLUSTERS WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED WIND THREAT.
A WW IS PSBL PRIOR TO 21Z.

..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 07/18/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON 44627527 45007494 45077383 44997326 45007178 44787106
44507046 44147024 43837046 43517069 42997102 42827199
42867231 42977325 43357412 44337529 44627527

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