MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1426

ACUS11 KWNS 182027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182027
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-182200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1426
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY...NEB PANHANDLE...SW/CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182027Z - 182200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE THE OVERALL SVR THREAT IS LOW...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY OCCUR SHORTLY ALONG A THERMALLY-ENHANCED TROUGH
EXTENDING SWWD FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NW MN. THUS FAR...ONGOING TSTM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES SWD. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AMIDST A MODESTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS STILL
UNDER SOME CINH...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ERODE THE CINH WITH AT LEAST
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

GIVEN THAT THIS AREA IS ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
FLOW...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 35 KT AND
STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE MARGINAL. AS SUCH...THE OVERALL SVR
THREAT IS LOW BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ON THE ORDER OF 40 DEG F. ONLY ISOLATED
SVR COVERAGE AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 07/18/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 43690406 44960146 45180037 44829965 42770091 41060328
40980478 42340563 43690406

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