MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1506

ACUS11 KWNS 242203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242202
COZ000-250000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 242202Z - 250000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS E-CNTRL/SERN CO
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO OROGRAPHIC
ASCENT INVOF THE CO ROCKIES FRONT RANGE MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
CONGEAL INTO SMALL...FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER
THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS IN THIS
REGION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...PARTLY OWING TO RELATIVELY RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THESE ELEVATIONS -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S -- BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING AN
EML PLUME. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT ANVIL SHADING DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING
CONVECTION WILL ACT TO LIMIT INSOLATION/LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
SOME EXTENT. PUX VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT DEEP SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW MULTICELL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES WITH DMGG WINDS AND
PERHAPS SVR HAIL ADVANCING OVER THE E-CNTRL/SERN CO HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP
FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND THE VEER-BACK-VEER SIGNATURE EVIDENT IN THE
VWP DATA...REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ROBUST SVR THREAT EVOLVING.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 07/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 37070409 37180466 37890493 39150457 39520371 39380256
38510220 37510246 37110320 37070409

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