MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1507

ACUS11 KWNS 242227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242227
TXZ000-NMZ000-250030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/E-CNTRL NM...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND
TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 242227Z - 250030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON DEEP ELY/S PER FDX VWP DATA WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED THE ONGOING MASS OF CONVECTION OVER E-CNTRL NM.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS PARTS OF NERN
NM WHERE CLOUD-FREE AREAS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE BUOYANCY.
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LARGE DCAPE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY
SUPPORT A FEW DMGG WIND GUSTS.

FARTHER TO THE E ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX S PLAINS AND TX
PANHANDLE...MUCH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
ALONG A PAIR OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN A RELATIVELY MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. WHILE HIGH-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
VENTILATION...DEEP SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER IS RELATIVELY
LIMITED PER LBB VWP DATA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SUSTENANCE
OF ORGANIZED SVR CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY
STILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DMGG WINDS AND SVR HAIL
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES PER
SFC OBS...AND LIMITED DEEP ASCENT...SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 07/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34280457 34930575 35920574 36980490 36650332 35390175
34290031 33640005 33180048 33290254 34280457

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.