MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1508

ACUS11 KWNS 242257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242257
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-250130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN TX...CNTRL/SRN LA...SRN
MS...SWRN AL...FAR WRN PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 242257Z - 250130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY
A TORNADO MAY EXIST THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO TRACK ESEWD/SEWD INVOF
CONVECTION-AUGMENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ATTENDANT TO PREVIOUSLY
DECAYED MCS/S. A LONGER-TRACK MCV APPEARS TO BE AIDING THE ACTIVITY
OVER CNTRL MS AND WILL CONTINUE BEING STEERED ESEWD TOWARD/ACROSS
SWRN AL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DIURNAL HEATING OF THE AIR S
OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY.

MODEST MID-LEVEL WNWLY/NWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FORWARD PROPAGATION OF
THIS PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION TOWARD THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL
EXIST...AS PARTLY AIDED BY WATER LOADING PROCESSES ACCOMPANYING PW
VALUES AROUND 1.5-2.2 INCHES PER GPS DATA. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH MORE SEMI-DISCRETE
CONVECTION IN JEFFERSON COUNTY MS. THIS IS LIKELY A MANIFESTATION OF
SUBTLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PER AREA
VWP DATA. AND...WITH SEASONABLY RICH DEEP MOISTURE...AND LOWERING
LCL/S FOLLOWING DUSK...THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAGNITUDE SHOULD LIMIT THE SVR
POTENTIAL SUCH THAT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 07/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 29869399 30389497 31599524 31519354 31839173 31628978
31688831 30978720 30388769 30008994 29859229 29869399

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