MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1541

ACUS11 KWNS 272126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272125
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-272300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1541
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0425 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PA/CENTRAL NY AND MD/NORTHERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272125Z - 272300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS AREAS INCLUDING CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL
NY AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF MD/NORTHERN VA...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE HAZARD.

DISCUSSION...ASSOCIATED WITH DUAL ZONES OF PRE-COLD FRONTAL
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...MULTIPLE EXTENSIVE
BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
PA/WEST-CENTRAL NY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WV/MD/VA. THESE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE AIDED BY A NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING BELT OF ASCENT PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS CYCLONIC/DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION. SCENARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUSTAINED BANDS OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION
THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING. THAT SAID...PREVALENT CLOUD
COVER/INSTABILITY LIMITATIONS HAVE BEEN...AND SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN...PROHIBITIVE FACTORS FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WHILE LIMITING
THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK. EVEN SO...INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME TRANSIENT/RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWING
STRUCTURES WITH WIND DAMAGE AS THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE HAZARD...BUT
ON A RELATIVELY ISOLATED/MARGINAL BASIS.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 07/27/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON 43797639 43077551 40797607 39057683 38777742 39417812
40657884 43797639

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