MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1566

ACUS11 KWNS 302053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302052
OKZ000-302145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND E-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302052Z - 302145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AN AGITATED CU FIELD INVOF I-40
IN E-CNTRL OK WITH STUNTED CU EXTENDING SWWD INTO SWRN OK/TX LOW
ROLLING PLAINS ALONG A DIFFUSING COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT. A THERMAL
AXIS PROTRUDES NEWD --RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S SW TO UPPER 80S
NE-- FROM FAR WRN N-CNTRL TX ENEWD INTO E-CNTRL OK AND STORM
INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT WILL PREFERENTIALLY FAVOR THIS CORRIDOR.
MODERATE BUOYANCY PER A MODIFIED 12Z OUN RAOB WILL SUPPORT PERHAPS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF POCKETS OF WIND
DAMAGE WITH THE MOST INTENSE CORES. OWING TO A LACK OF UPPER
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MODEST WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /20 KT 6 KM AGL PER
COMPOSITE KTLX AND PRC PROFILER/...CURRENT THINKING IS STORM
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN RATHER ISOLD AND DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED AT BEST.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 07/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 34829488 34539806 34969812 35569564 35269448 34829488

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