MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 142230
FFGMPD
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-150129-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0161
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
629 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST NE...EASTERN CO...NORTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 142229Z - 150129Z

SUMMARY...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NE AND
NORTHWEST KS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BACKBUILDING AS OF LATE WHICH IS
ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO ALIGN NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST, SIMILAR TO
ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THIS
REGION DUE TO CELL TRAINING.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN GROWING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHEAST CO, SOUTHWEST NE, AND NORTHWEST KS AS CELLS HAVE
BEGUN BACKBUILDING INTO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NE WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE REGION IS NOT
ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE, AROUND 20 KNOTS AT THE 850 HPA AND 700 HPA
LEVELS. THE ACTIVITY IS FOCUSING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL INVERTED
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES ARE POOLED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE IN THE 2.5-3 INCH PER THREE HOUR RANGE. THE
18Z HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THE ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP GOING UNTIL
AROUND 01Z/8 PM CDT. AS CELL TRAINING ACROSS THE REGION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY, THINK A QUICK 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

ROTH

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON 40760245 41120105 40230086 38680180 37990281 39830307
40760245

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