WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 431

WWUS20 KWNS 222036
SEL1
SPC WW 222036
IAZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-230300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA
WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
WISCONSIN

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MARQUETTE MICHIGAN TO 10 MILES EAST OF WATERLOO IOWA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 429...WW 430...

DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME
MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND SHOULD FUEL ROBUST TSTM UPDRAFTS
IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GREATEST SUPERCELL
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY EXIST IN THE
RELATIVELY SHORT TERM ACROSS WI WHERE QUASI-DISCRETE CELLS ARE
DEVELOPING AMIDST 30-35 EFFECTIVE SHEAR. WITH TIME...LIFT AND LINEAR
FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT MAY SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION INTO A
SEGMENTED SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
WATCH INTO THE EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.


...CARBIN

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