Sunday, August 18, 2013

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190037
SWODY1
SPC AC 190034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM N CNTRL SD INTO ERN ND AND
NWRN MN...

...N CNTRL SD INTO SRN AND ERN ND...NWRN MN...
AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION IS CURRENTLY
ACROSS NWRN MN NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW WHERE ISOLATED CELLS ARE
FORMING...AND ALSO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO CNTRL AND NERN ND WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WHILE FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOIST AIR
MASS...CAPPING AND THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER ARE CONCERNS IN TERMS
OF STORM COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS...ONLY A NARROW ZONE
OF SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED FROM N CNTRL SD INTO NWRN MN...BEFORE
CAPPING INCREASES FURTHER. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 1737.

..JEWELL.. 08/19/2013

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