DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131729
SWODY2
SPC AC 131727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES ALONG
WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SFC CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER SERN QUEBEC OR NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG UPPER JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE
SYNOPTIC TROUGH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE SERN STATES WHILE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN STALLED FROM TX THEN NWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AREA...

CIRCULATION AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF CP HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD
SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF MID-UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM THROUGH ERN CO AND WRN KS
BENEATH 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION WILL EXIST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK WARM
ADVECTION...BUT SHOULD SHIFT EWD AND DIMINISH. IN WAKE OF MORNING
ACTIVITY...DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD SUPPORT AN AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD SEWD WITHIN A MODEST NWLY
FLOW REGIME. VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 25-35 KT WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL AND
PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...

A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IN
VICINITY OF LEE TROUGH FROM WRN SD INTO ERN MT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS MAY
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY...BUT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT IS
UNLIKELY.

...LOWER MS VALLEY TO GULF COAST STATES...

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND HIGH /1.7-2 INCH/ PW ENVIRONMENT
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE EARLY PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL...AND THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALSO
RESIDE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WHERE POCKETS OF
INSOLATION OCCUR...A FEW STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION APPEARS
VERY MARGINAL.

..DIAL.. 08/13/2013

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