DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231718
SWODY2
SPC AC 231716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 23 2013

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS ERN ND AND NRN SD. SOME
SFC-BASED STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A CAP WEAKENS AND MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
TAKES PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT GRAND FORKS ND AND ABERDEEN
SD...ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY...SHOW MLCAPE IN
THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F.
THIS ALONG WITH 20 TO 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT
ACCELERATION ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN ND AND NRN SD WHERE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEP. A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MUCH OF MN WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST.

..BROYLES.. 08/23/2013

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