DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181727
SWODY2
SPC AC 181725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN CANADA AND
ADJACENT PORTION OF THE FAR NRN U.S. ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS...AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE NWRN/WRN GULF COAST REGION WILL UNDERGO WEAKENING THIS
PERIOD. A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE ATTENDANT TO THIS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD
FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN OFFSHORE...GLANCING SRN NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN INCLUDING A
CLOSED LOW LINGERING NEAR THE CENTRAL CA COAST.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION --- NC/VA/MD/SERN PA...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN CONUS.
WHILE 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR COULD FAVOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION...WEAK INSTABILITY /MLCAPE LESS THAN 500 J PER KG/ AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...NRN ME...
THIS OUTLOOK HAS ADDED A GENERAL TSTM AREA TO FAR NRN MAINE FOR DAY
2. MOISTENING AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. WHILE 30 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR COULD FAVOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...WEAK
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOB 500 J PER KG/ AND WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GENERAL TSTM AREA...
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NRN CA EWD INTO MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN...FOUR CORNERS...TO PART OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND OVER
THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE PROBABILITY FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD BE LOW AT THIS TIME...DUE TO
THE LACK OF 1/ STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT...2/ GREATER INSTABILITY
AND/OR 3/ STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

..PETERS.. 08/18/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.