Sunday, August 18, 2013

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180706
SWODY3
SPC AC 180704

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL OCCUR GOING INTO
THE D3 FORECAST PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE WLY FLOW REGIME WILL RESIDE OVER
FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS INTO CANADA...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH
REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...AND A CLOSED LOW LINGERS
OVER THE CNTRL CA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WITH LOW-LEVEL SLYS PRESENT ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND MN. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN.

...DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN...
SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE DAKOTAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ESTABLISHING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/50S OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS...TO THE UPPER 60S
OVER MN. PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL AID IN MLCAPE VALUES
FROM 1000 J/KG WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE MARGINAL IN SD/ND...TO 3000
J/KG WHERE MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGHER IN MN. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NRN HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GLANCING INFLUENCE OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
INVOF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND NRN MN. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK
/AOB 30 KT/...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..GARNER.. 08/18/2013

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