ACUS11 KWNS 011754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011753
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-012000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...SWRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 011753Z - 012000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL FORM BY
MID-AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL PRIMARY RISKS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW TORNADOES. A WW WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR...WITH MODERATE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF AN INITIAL WW.
DISCUSSION...17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1012 MB CYCLONE NEAR
BFF...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD AND THEN E ACROSS
SRN SD. SURFACE-BASED CB/S HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS FRONT IN
SHANNON/BENNETT COUNTIES SD. ADDITIONAL CU DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
NOTED ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW IN CNTRL NEB /CENTERED OVER VALLEY
COUNTY/. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FOR ASCENT IS NEBULOUS...CONTINUED
SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD INCREASING DESTABILIZATION AND MINIMAL
CAPPING WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE-BASED TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON /SUPPORTED BY RECENT HRRR RUNS/. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/. VEERING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARIES
WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
..GRAMS/MEAD.. 08/01/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...
CYS...
LAT...LON 42150404 42890417 43490415 43760376 43880297 43810181
43740109 43339950 42519847 41429770 40769743 40219742
40079762 39939786 39949910 40030028 40140167 40760256
41620370 42150404
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