MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1582

ACUS11 KWNS 011818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011818
NCZ000-SCZ000-012015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE SC AND NC PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 011818Z - 012015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLD POCKETS OF DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER WRN NC AND
SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM THE VA PIEDMONT
SWWD THROUGH PARTS OF WRN NC/SC. THE 12Z GSO RAOB WHEN MODIFIED FOR
CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS FEATURING LOW 80S TEMPS AND LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS...YIELDS AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE. DESPITE A MODEST WLY
WIND PROFILE...SOME LOOSE ORGANIZATION TO A MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER
WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE. SPC EXPERIMENTAL HAIL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
LOCALIZED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY
THE MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS --OBJECTIVELY VALIDATED BY WDSS-II RADAR
MESH WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AND A RECENT 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL REPORT.
ADDITIONALLY...RAIN-COOLED DOWNDRAFTS IN THE FORM OF WET/HYBRID
MICROBURSTS...WILL PROVIDE A MECHANISM TO BRING POCKETS OF STRONG
WINDS 40-50 MPH TO THE SURFACE /PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONGER/ THAT MAY
RESULT IN A FEW INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 08/01/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34378214 35128270 35498117 36058067 35547939 34668013
34378214

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