ACUS11 KWNS 011854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011854
MTZ000-IDZ000-012030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1583
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SW AND CNTRL MT / FAR NERN ID
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 011854Z - 012030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. A PROBABLE SUPERCELL RISK CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BY THE 1930-2100Z TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW TEMPS OVER SWRN MT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE 70S DEG F TO
THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED EWD NEAR THE WY/MT BORDER FROM A
SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL ID. TO THE N OF THE FRONT...BACKED NELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
MIX WITHIN A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULT IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DROPPING THROUGH THE 40S. IN SPITE OF THIS...STEEP H7-H5
LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 7-8 DEG C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AROUND 1000
J/KG MLCAPE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES FURTHER.
AS A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NERN CA/NWRN NV/SERN OREGON
CONTINUES TO ENCROACH UPON THE DISCUSSION AREA...ATTENDANT LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW FIELDS INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP/MATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NERN ID/SWRN MT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AN ISOLATED HAIL/SEVERE
WIND GUST THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST WITH ANY SUPERCELL/S/ THAT DEVELOP.
..SMITH/MEAD.. 08/01/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...PIH...MSO...
LAT...LON 45081442 46351425 47531299 47501116 46790967 45690968
44841172 44411404 45081442
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