MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1606

ACUS11 KWNS 030923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030923
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-031100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0423 AM CDT SAT AUG 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AR...SRN MO...FAR NE OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461...

VALID 030923Z - 031100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 461 WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED...WW ISSUANCE SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN AR.

DISCUSSION...THE MCS IN SRN MO IS LOCATED ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF A
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE
AROUND 1500 J/KG. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM WNW TO ESE FROM FAR SW MO TO NERN AR. IN ADDITION TO THE
INSTABILITY...SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE MCS AREA ARE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S F REPRESENTING HIGH QUALITY MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE NERN EXTENSION OF A SRN
PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP SUPPORT THE MCS FURTHER SOUTH INTO
NRN AR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MCS
WILL BE MAINTAINED AS FAR SOUTH AS LITTLE ROCK THROUGH DAYBREAK
WHERE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS THE MCS RUNS INTO WEAKER
INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL AR.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 08/03/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 37489216 37799345 37639419 37359483 36779526 36339456
35939360 35419287 35069250 34919194 35179094 35959067
36949113 37489216

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