MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1655

ACUS11 KWNS 071520
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071520
OHZ000-071645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1655
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN INTO PARTS OF ERN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071520Z - 071645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN INTO PARTS OF
ERN OH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER...SUSTAINED
STORMS...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF A
SVR THREAT THAT WOULD WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC TIME-LAPSE INDICATED SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
TSTM DEVELOPMENT SINCE 1330-1345Z OVER NRN OH...WITH AT LEAST THE
WRN PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY APPARENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NWRN TO SERN OH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OH COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND THE ERN
EXTENT OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR/STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
IS RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL OH. MUCH
OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN OH APPEARS TO BE FORCED BY LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT PER 15-20 KT SWLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL/NRN OH.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
AN MCV OR MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WITH THE SRN LOWER MI TSTM CLUSTER
PROGRESSES ESEWD TODAY. THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND STRONG
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AS A 50 KT WLY MIDLEVEL JET SPREADS EWD SUGGEST
AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER TO SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

DOWNSTREAM CLOUDINESS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INTO MUCH OF
EAST CENTRAL-NERN OH SHOULD TEND TO TEMPER SURFACE HEATING AND SLOW
THE REMOVAL OF SURFACE BASED INHIBITION. THIS LATTER FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE A PRIMARY LIMIT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF STRONG-SVR
STORMS...AND THUS PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A WW AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS/KERR.. 08/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...IWX...

LAT...LON 41688448 41678308 41498240 41698149 41968066 41068062
40398082 40238162 40648301 41508455 41688448

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