ACUS11 KWNS 111939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111938
NCZ000-VAZ000-112045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1694
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN VA/NRN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111938Z - 112045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS FROM
THE STRONGEST STORMS. OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
ISOLD THAT A WW IS NOT LIKELY...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INTENSIFYING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SWRN VA/NWRN NC AS MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS GIVEN WAY TO STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING. THE AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SERN VA NWWD INTO CENTRAL WV.
ANIMATION OF VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN E-W LINE OF ENHANCED CU
JUST N OF THE VA-NC BORDER...LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EROSION OF MORNING CLOUD COVER. TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS THRU LATE AFTN. MOIST PROFILES /PW VALUES
APPROACHING 2 INCHES/ AND 25-30 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS.
..BUNTING/WEISS.. 08/11/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 36608028 36947972 37217939 37427891 37597854 37617804
37607762 37487716 37287676 37057633 36817599 36527590
36397595 36077609 35867663 35797731 35757934 35878006
36308031 36608028
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