MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1707

ACUS11 KWNS 131810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131809
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-131945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1707
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SC...SRN AND ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 131809Z - 131945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NRN SC NEWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN NC AS STORM COVERAGE GRADUALLY
EXPANDS. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE SITUATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD
TOWARD PAMLICO SOUND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS INITIATING WEST OF
RALEIGH AND FAYETTVILLE. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE AIRMASS HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS WITH MLCAPE
ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME STEEP...APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM...FROM ECNTRL
SC EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SRN AND ERN NC. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S F MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR WET
DOWNBURSTS WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. AS INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...THE STRONGER CELLS MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED
WITH HAIL.

..BROYLES/KERR.. 08/13/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35287534 35627524 36067542 36497599 36597703 36457743
36347765 35917825 35507906 35158013 35018048 34678064
34448038 34207979 34127894 34357710 34707614 35287534

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