MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1736

ACUS11 KWNS 181950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181949
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-182145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE FL PHD...ERN AL AND WRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181949Z - 182145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...VIGOROUS CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY FURTHER AS IT DEVELOPS
INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND IT SEEMS LIKELY TO SPREAD
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN
GEORGIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
EVENTUALLY THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL
/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING/ STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...BUT PEAK GUSTS
PROBABLY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW THE 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA.

DISCUSSION...PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MIGRATING INLAND WITHIN DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OFF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
INCREASING WEST/NORTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY. CONVECTION MAY BE IN THE
PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING...IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION EXTENDING IN A ZONE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GEORGIA
PIEDMONT. GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE EAST...POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE SURFACE INFLOW LAYER IS IN QUESTION. BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT IS VERY MOIST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES...AS CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
BELT OF 20-30+ KT MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. GIVEN HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING AND THE EVENTUAL DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE JET STREAK...THE RISK FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS COULD
INCREASE WITH CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS TOWARD COLUMBUS...AND PERHAPS
SOUTH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTA METROPOLITAN
AREA...THROUGH THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR/THOMPSON.. 08/18/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 29988620 31418609 33758463 32798407 31248507 29988620

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