MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1738

ACUS11 KWNS 191819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191819
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-192045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT MON AUG 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN SC...CNTRL/SRN GA...CNTRL/NRN
FL...FAR SERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 191819Z - 192045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DIABATIC SFC HEATING CONTINUES AND PBL
CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN...WITH ENHANCED COVERAGE FOCUSED INVOF A WAVY
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM COASTAL SC TO CNTRL
AL...REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES S OF THE FRONT...AND INLAND-MOVING
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES. WHILE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG PER MODIFIED 12Z JAX/TLH/CHS RAOBS...THESE SOUNDINGS INDICATE
NEARLY MOIST-NEUTRAL THERMAL PROFILES IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH POOR LAPSE RATES. FURTHERMORE...CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SHOULD
BE LACKING OWING TO AOB 20 KT OF FLOW IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE...WHICH IS ACTING TO LIMIT DEEP SHEAR...PER VWP DATA.
HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE -- PW VALUES AROUND
2.0-2.2 INCHES PER GPS DATA -- SUPPORTING SUBSTANTIAL WATER
LOADING...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 08/19/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 30278581 31208530 32938289 33628126 33948021 33987884
33777887 33157934 31998081 31318126 30558151 28808092
28368116 28358219 29878380 29678491 29728534 30278581

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