ACUS11 KWNS 192056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192055
NVZ000-CAZ000-192330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT MON AUG 19 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF SRN/CNTRL
CA AND ADJACENT FAR WRN NV
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 192055Z - 192330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...VIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
WITHIN A MODESTLY MOIST/UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE SAN GABRIEL AND SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SRN CA AND OVER PARTS OF SIERRA ASSOCIATED
WITH LOCAL OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS. CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST
A MODESTLY MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 1.0-1.5-INCH PW VALUES
PER GPS DATA WILL FOSTER MODERATE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODESTLY ENHANCED
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW E OF A CYCLONE POSITIONED OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE VENTILATION AND SUPPORT A FEW
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE CELLS. LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS SPREADS OVER
35F...DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND DEEP INVERTED-VEE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD YIELD A MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST OWING
TO DEEP SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE COOLING OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE
LACK OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT/DEEP SHEAR SHOULD LARGELY
MITIGATE THE SVR POTENTIAL.
..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 08/19/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...VEF...SGX...REV...HNX...LOX...
LAT...LON 34361717 34501806 34711829 35181852 36191853 37571888
37781646 36171573 34561576 34361717
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