MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1764

ACUS11 KWNS 241738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241738
MNZ000-NDZ000-241915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1764
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT SAT AUG 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NE ND AND NW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241738Z - 241915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS /BY ABOUT 19Z/...BY WHICH TIME A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SUPER RAPID SCAN VISIBLE LOOPS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS ACROSS CENTRAL ND...NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
A SURFACE TROUGH AND THE COLD POOL WITH THE ONGOING STORMS NW OF
BIS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTENING HAVE BOOSTED
MLCAPE VALUES TO 2500-3000 J/KG AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS
ACROSS CENTRAL ND. THUS...THE RISK FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS INCREASING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE NEW STORMS
FORM...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINE
SEGMENTS. THE KBIS VWP ALSO SAMPLED MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 40-50
KT...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR SOME RISK OF SUPERCELLS. REGARDLESS...CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY
TO EVOLVE INTO A LINE/SMALL MCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS A
RESULT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY ABOUT
19Z.

..THOMPSON/DIAL.. 08/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48969599 48439595 47379696 46739848 46660025 46810067
47180077 47660012 47879996 48379970 48769949 49019899
48969599

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