MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1770

ACUS11 KWNS 252015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252014
ORZ000-252215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OREGON

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 252014Z - 252215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH CNTRL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON
MAY POSE A MODEST RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAND OF
ASCENT OVER SWRN OR ASSOCIATED WITH A NNEWD EJECTING VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK WHERE
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
GRADUALLY STEEPEN WITH EWD EXTENT INTO CNTRL/ERN OREGON AND WHERE
DIABATIC WARMING IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MLCAPE TO 500 J/KG. A BELT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT /40 KT
AT 500 MB/ HAS RESULTED IN A CORRIDOR OF 30-35 KT SLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
DEEP SHEAR THAT COINCIDES WITH THE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THUS POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION AS THEY DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN
OREGON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 08/25/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...

LAT...LON 42912128 44352146 45252089 45521927 44891808 43561858
42561989 42912128

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