Monday, August 26, 2013

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1778

ACUS11 KWNS 262204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262204
AZZ000-270000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1778
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND CNTRL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262204Z - 270000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL
STORMS DEVELOPING IN AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SERN AZ. STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEG F WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S IN THE LOWER DESERT NEAR PHX. THE 12Z TUS AND GREATER PHX AREA
RAOBS SHOWED PW AROUND 2 INCHES AND THIS VALUE IS OBSERVED IN RECENT
GPS PW SITES OVER S-CNTRL AND CNTRL AZ. AS A RESULT...UPWARDS OF
1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

VWP DATA FROM KIWA AND KEMX SHOW AROUND 20 KT DEEP SELY FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE-6 KM AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE NWWD MOVEMENT OF
STORMS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SERN AZ INTO THE LOWER DESERT
AREAS FARTHER TO THE W AND NW --POTENTIALLY IN THE PHX METRO IN
SEVERAL HOURS. A LARGER WIND-PRODUCING CLUSTER OF STORMS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE AND WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A SEVERE
WATCH. NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE A FEW MORE INTENSE STORMS
MOVING INTO THE RICH PW/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE STORMS...WILL LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
MICROBURSTS UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..SMITH/HART.. 08/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 34141290 33731146 32161075 31531128 32061334 33311341
34141290

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