MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1799

ACUS11 KWNS 292214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292213
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-292345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1799
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN UT/SOUTHEAST ID/FAR WESTERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292213Z - 292345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY POSE A LOCALLY SEVERE
WIND/MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF UT INTO SOUTHEAST ID/FAR WESTERN
WY.

DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1 INCH PER 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND MORE CONTEMPORARY GPS DERIVED DATA. AIDED BY
THIS MOISTURE AND A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY...ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED/CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD FROM FAR NORTHEAST NV INTO NORTHWEST UT/FAR
SOUTHEAST ID LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 500-1000 J/KG...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A MODERATELY STRONG BELT OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
WESTERLIES /30-40 KT AND GREATER PER MTX WSR-88D VWP DATA/ WILL
SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. MORE THAN ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A 66 KT WIND GUST WAS
MEASURED AT WENDOVER UT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR /2135Z/.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 08/29/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...

LAT...LON 40381373 41751363 43101201 43151046 41661066 40341188
40111308 40381373

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