MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1805

ACUS11 KWNS 302048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302048
NDZ000-302245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1805
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL ND.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302048Z - 302245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER WRN ND
AND MOVE EWD INTO ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THEM TO PRODUCE SVR
HAIL/GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM EXTREME SERN SK
SWWD ACROSS EXTREME NWRN ND AND NERN MT...BECOMING DIFFUSE INTO
PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL MT. PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLLOCATED
WIND SHIFT LINE WAS DRAWN FROM FRONTAL INTERSECTION OVER SERN
SK...SSWWD ACROSS WRN ND FROM NEAR D60 ACROSS PORTIONS SLOPE/BOWMAN
COUNTIES ND...MERGING WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ACTING AS
DRYLINE OVER EXTREME ERN PORTIONS MT/WY BORDER. PLUME OF MOST
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS EVIDENT ALONG AND E OF
TROUGH...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S JUST
W OF TROUGH TO MID-UPPER 60S NEAR SFC MOIST AXIS OVER CENTRAL ND.
STG DIABATIC HEATING OF THAT AREA AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT --
TO BE AIDED FURTHER BY LARGE-SCALE SCENT PRECEDING MT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- CONTRIBUTE TO N-S CORRIDOR OF 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE
BETWEEN TROUGH AND MOIST AXIS.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE IS LIMITED BY WEAKNESS OF NEAR-SFC
FLOW...DEEP SHEAR FAVORS POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND
SUPERCELLS WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION. ABOUT 50-KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDE IS EVIDENT OVER THIS AREA AND SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CAA AND DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
SHOULD FORM NWRN BOUND OF ANY SVR THREAT.

..EDWARDS/GOSS.. 08/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 45959939 45950398 48980401 48989942 45959939

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